Oil

I'm sure we are all aware of explanations that attempt to explain entire systems on the basis of one idea. For example, some would be able to explain all of your health problems based on what you eat or don't eat.

In history and politics, I have encountered this phenomenon with regards to oil. Now, I know that often oil can be considered part of conspiracy theories, especially when it comes to the recent war in Iraq, however, we have to understand that ever since the industrial revolution of the 1800's, all modern and advanced countries are dependent on this precious resource that is known as oil, whether for personal transportation or industry. Right now, I will attempt to provide a small insight into several processes that are intrinsically connected to oil and perhaps, at a later point in time, the discussion will continue.

Oil is very important for an American living in Israel for two reasons. One, America is the largest oil consumer in the world and therefore has a tremendous effect and influence on all that happens in the oil markets, from the process of drawing the oil through its purification and to the setting of its prices. The second reason that oil is so personal is that at least 60 percent of the world's oil is found in the greater Middle East.

Now, everyone knows that the world markets are down, especially the American market. In almost every article on this subject, the price of oil has been mentioned. This is simply because all modernized, industrialized countries run on oil.

There is a specific reason Bush refers to Venezuela and Iran as the axis of evil. Both are very involved in OPEC, the organization for oil producing countries, and both are leading the calls to keep the price of oil as high as possible.

Traditionally, America was able to control the price of oil through Saudi Arabia, who, as the most fruitful country in terms of oil had a large amount of influence on the other countries. America would sell weapons and military equipment to the Saudis in return for guarantees that prices remain reasonable. Ever since the Asian market crash of 1997, Saudi Arabia's power and influence, as well as American influence in Saudi Arabia has dropped only to be replaced by Iran, who is not willing to deal with the Americans and the feeling is obviously mutual. Iran and Venezuela lead the cries that the West is taking advantage of the oil countries by bribing them with weapons. They want to ensure that those who want oil will pay its true worth.

As of now, it seems that Iran and co. are winning the battle as oil prices have been over 100 dollars per barrel. This is one factor in the current recession (or not, depending on definitions of recession) in the US. When oil prices are high, highly industrialized economies slow down because they cannot afford to purchase the same amounts of oil that they might have when the prices were lower. What will eventually happen (it has happened before) is that the prices will rise and rise, countries will buy less and less oil, until the price of oil drastically drops because there is no longer any demand.

It must be understood that most of the work in oil producing countries is done by foreign workers. There are enormous amounts of foreign workers in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar etc. When the price of oil dramatically drops, most of these workers find themselves on their way home, unemployed (see the beginning of the movie Syrianna). What this leads to is eventual waves of terror.

I am fully aware that not all terrorists are poor and unemployed, in fact, most are educated and middle class. However, it must be understood that the processes described above are exactly that, processes. They are processes that take place over several years at a time. For example, the energy crisis of the 1970's eventually let to the First Intifada in the 1980's. It must be kept in mind that obviously the energy crisis was not the direct cause for the Intifada, but it definitely had an effect and in light of other historical instances(I can't remember them now) there indeed seems to be a connection between oil and terrorism.

I could go on and on and perhaps in other posts I will elaborate. Personally, I am not sure I accept that oil can really explain everything that goes on in the world, but I am certainly fascinated by the attempts to do so and I think that even if there are other factors, it does not negate the importance of oil and energy, and there must be some truth in these attempts.